NHL Playoffs: What to Expect
Just as the Madness of March ends in ridiculous fashion, we pick up with the NHL Playoffs followed closely by the NBA Playoffs. Plus the Master’s this weekend and the MLB starting to pick up steam…Such a great time of year to be a sports fan and an even better time of year to be a sports investor. Let’s dive into a sport that I feel does not get nearly enough attention: Hockey.
(Like always, the code for our analysis is posted on our github giving you the ability to recreate any of the visuals.
BONUS: Our prediction model code computing Elo Ratings and simulation is also included in its entirety. You can copy this code for any other sport and predict your own games. Enjoy!)
NHL Reference is a treasure trove for hockey stats – it’s also formatted in a way that makes it very easy to build a web crawler to scrape their data for analysis and predictive modeling. All the data used for this analysis was pulled from there.
With 16 teams entering the playoffs, it’s nice to take a step back and view each team’s metrics from a high level. You can clearly see that Tampa’s rating and point metrics are unprecedentedly better than everyone else this year. The heatmap below also has a great clustering algorithm plugged into it on the left hand side showing us which teams have the most in common across all of the metrics.
(darker = higher; lighter = hower)
Prediction Model: Elo Ratings
*Disclaimer on this simulation and prediction model: Elo Rating is a unique method that only takes into account wins and losses, ignoring any other statistic. While it does lack interactions between specific variables, it is still an extremely effective approach because of the mathematical adjustments used computing importance of a win relative to the rankings heading into the match. It was originally created for ranking chess players but has been adopted for many other uses. Nate Silver, of fivethirtyeight, has made this approach mainstream. This prediction model is a vastly different methodology from any of A.I. Sports’ investment models.*
Monte Carlo Simulation:
Tampa Bay had an incredible season. They scored 325 goals and only surrendered 222 giving them a +103 goal differential. This was 41 goals better than the next closest team (Calgary) and 59 goals better than the 3rd best team (Boston). It’s no surprise the simulation has them as a heavy favorite to win it all. It’s interesting to see that Carolina and Washington are near 50/50 getting by the first round but have a decent chance (4th and 5th best respectively) of coming home with the Stanley Cup.
Hockey, unlike many other professional sports (NBA: Warriors vs. Cleveland for too many years straight), commonly experience the craziest upsets, game 7 road wins, and drama, especially in the first round. Let’s break down each pairings to see if there’s potential for excitement…
First Round Deep Dive:
*All Radio charts below are formatted so that the closer to 10 the better and the closer to 0 the worse. For example, Expected Goals Against near 10 means that the team does a great job limiting their opponents expected goals in a game.*
Calgary Flames vs. Colorado Avalanche
Offense
The Flames are better goal scorers with 289 goals this season compared to 258 by the Avs. However, the Avs have a slightly more effective power play with a 22% success rate compared to the 19.3% from the Flames. Calgary also has the offensive edge in the circle, winning 52.4% of face-offs vs the 48.1% Avalanche.
On top of all of this, looking at the individual players on each team, the Calgary Flames are stacked and deep. Avs have a REALLY strong top line, but after that, their players are just your run of the mill solid NHL’ers.
Defense
Colorado has EJ and Barrie on the back end. EJ is more of a “stay at home” solid defenseman, while Barrie is out there as a “new age” defender with an offensive mindset. He recently joined his clubs’ record book as the high scoring defenseman of all time. Congrats to him! These double-edged sword players are nice to have but can be rough if you don’t have enough core D men to back them up.
Calgary, on the other hand, have a very solid D core with insanely high +/-‘s. I’d venture to say their top 5 defenders would all make it as top 2 defenders on the Avs’ squad. I like a true D man over the offensive D so a little bias may seep through on that statement. In the end, the defensive group the Flames are playing with will be what keeps them in these playoffs.
The defensive edge has to go to the Flames.
Goalies
Mike Smith = 2.72 GAA, .898 SV%, and 2 SO’s (Calgary)
Vs.
Philipp Grubauer = 2.64 GAA, .917 SV%, and 3 SO’s (Colorado)
Mike Smith will likely get the start for the Flames. He has been on fire lately and we all know how important riding the hot goalie is in the playoffs. He is a smart veteran with playoff experience, unlike his counterpart. Nothing against Rittich, he also had a great season and I wouldn’t be surprised if he started or came in relief at some point if there are some struggles (not likely in the first round, sorry Avs!).
The Avs have a rotating goalie system that has worked well for them BUT I’m not sure who will go in first. It will be a rough bout for them so I’m going to put myself on the record here saying they will have both goalies playing in round 1. Neither goalie has seen much of the playoffs. Varlamov hasn’t played playoff minutes and Grubauer won the cup last year as a backup. Technically, he has been around the playoffs, just not really IN them.
I give the advantage to Calgary Flames in this category too.
Intangibles
The biggest thing that needs to be considered here is the Flames’ amazing season. Seeing that the 08-09 season was the last time they were actually a contender in the playoffs, this season they come in as a top seed, dominating all season. They have been fun to watch and are impressively consistent. I don’t see them going out in the first or second round. The Conference finals is where they need to dig deep and fight for their chance at the cup. They don’t have experience deep in the playoffs, but the squad that their organization put together is ready for a legitimate shot at the coveted cup! Also, this is the only group I have in my bracket with a clean 4-0 sweep over the opponent.
Monte Carlo Simulation:
Calgary Flames: 65% Probability to Advance
Colorado Avalanche: 35% Probability to Advance
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Offense
Tampa Tampa Tampa. There isn’t much to compare here. They take the lead in all stats across the board. They are very good this year and it will all come down to the “intangibles”.
Defense
Tampa has built quite a defensive group. They’re very good at playing “stay-at-home” defense and sending bombs for the blueline. They win games.
Columbus’ defense is no joke either though. They have guys that play more offensively and like to contribute on both sides to get wins. Slightly scary for the playoffs BUT the sword has two edges. I think their Defenseman can step up, help offensively, and get a tally or two to dramatically change any game.
Goalies
Sergei Bobrovsky = 2.58 GAA, .913 SV%, and 9 SO’s (Columbus)
Vs.
Andrea Vasilevskiy = 2.4 GAA, .925 SV%, and 6 SO’s (Tampa)
The battle of the goalies! Bobrovsky HAS to play amazing. There is no other way to lay out this matchup. Tampa is an absolute powerhouse that will walk all over this team unless Bob can lock down the net. Anyone paired up against Tampa will statistically be a loser, but if you can shut down their offense then you can compete. Luckily for Columbus, they have a goalie that is capable of doing this. Also, 9 shut outs…. Are you kidding me? This goalie is nuts.
Intangibles
Columbus should not be totally overrun here. Their goalie can help them, Torts as coach will be extremely valuable, and their crazy talented top 6 will give them a shot. Their defenseman, I think, can change the game for better or for worse, so keep your eyes on them!
I have two concerns for Tampa:
1.) Historically, they are really good at being the best in the regular season and then blowing it in the playoffs.
2.) They have been ridiculously better than everyone in the league for so long that there may be some regression to the mean.
I hope they don’t get complacent or look ahead to the next round series conserving energy or they could be in trouble.
Monte Carlo Simulation:
Tampa Bay Lightning: 68% Probability to Advance
Columbus Blue Jackets: 32% Probability to Advance
San Jose Sharks vs. Vegas Golden Knights
Offense
The Sharks know how to score. They have 43 more goals this year than the Knights and have 4 30+ goal scorers compared to the 0 the Knights have. Even the Knights depth doesn’t make up for the glaring difference here. I will give a huge advantage to the Sharks.
Defense
I want to split the advantage here. I think Brent Burns of the Sharks is the key to winning. He knows when to jump in the play, plays solid D, and is a beast that anyone would want on their team. His reward is far better than the risk.
For the Knights, they have Depth on their D. Their +/- across the board is awesome and everyone is helping Fleury keep pucks out of the net. Overall, they are better but Burns evens it out. Karlsson isn’t bad either but needs to step it up in the playoffs.
Goalies
Marc-Andre Fleury = 2.51 GAA, .913 SV%, and 8 SO’s (Vegas)
Vs.
Martin Jones = 2.94 GAA, .896 SV%, and 3 SO’s (San Jose)
Martin Jones just doesn’t have the D in front of him to help his numbers, which could prove to be an issue for him. If the D steps it up, primarily Karlsson and Vlasic, then Martin will be strong enough to change those numbers to surpass Fleury. Fleury has better statistics but has fallen apart during this time of year so I have to give this category a tossup between the teams.
Intangibles
I must consider the past with Fleury. If he has a solid post season, his team has more than a decent chance, like last year. If he plays like he did in his Penguins era, they will lose without a doubt. Vegas doesn’t have the scoring ability to make up for a few extra pucks getting by.
The only thing to consider for the Sharks is their veteran players. They want/deserve a cup and know their window is closing. This may be enough to get some extra activity out of them. I have the sharks in 7, but if I bet again I’d change in to sharks in 5 or 6?
Monte Carlo Simulation:
San Jose Sharks: 65% Probability to Advance
Vegas Golden Knights: 35% Probability to Advance
Boston Bruins vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Offense
Both teams are crazy good offensively but when comes down to it, the Bruins know how to fight for playoff goal, while the Leafs simply have better depth. I would split the advantage here.
Defense
EASY edge given to the Bruins here. Toronto has struggled over the years with their D and things haven’t changed much. Muzzin has been a great asset, but this group just don’t seem to get the job done in front of their goalie.
Goalies
Tuuka Rask = 2.48 GAA, .912 SV%, and 4 SO’s (Boston)
Vs.
Frederik Andersen = 2.77 GAA, .917 SV%, and 1 SO’s (Toronto)
The Bruins have the edge here as well. The goalies are pretty closely matched up but the defensive help will give Rask the extra boost he needs to perform better than expected.
Intangibles
These teams played 7 games last year and so that will be in both teams’ minds without a doubt. Toronto was on the losing side of then but with the Johnny T and Muzzin pickups, this team may have enough to push past the B’s if everyone is on point, including Andersen.
Side note, if the Bruins go on a tear again, there may be no team that could stop them. It’s not extremely likely, but Boston has the talent and ability to bring home another cup for their city.
Monte Carlo Simulation:
Boston Bruins: 83% Probability to Advance
Toronto Maple Leafs: 17% Probability to Advance
Nashville Predators vs. Dallas Stars
Offense
Preds have depth here and can outplay the Stars down the line. Top lines are all super competitive and the playoffs are all about the 3rd and 4th lines and how they contribute. This will help the Preds get an edge here.
Defense
Preds have my favorite defensive group around. Josi is an amazing leader and plays some of the best defense in the league. This is a big factor because Pekka is in need of some support to start the series enabling him to build with confidence. It will all starts with their D.
Goalies
Pekka Rinne = 2.42 GAA, .918 SV%, and 4 SO’s (Nashville)
Vs.
Ben Bishop = 1.98 GAA, .934 SV%, and 7 SO’s (Dallas)
Age may be a factor here for Pekka. They need to play hard and use him while in his prime-ish. He has had tons of flops in the post season after amazing regular season play. He will be one that NEEDS to play well for them to have a chance. Bishop has had some bad luck in the playoffs with Tampa for awhile, and he’s hoping nothing carries over to this team. If he is on point, the Preds are going to be frustrated all series. The edge goes to Bishop.
Intangibles
Dallas hasn’t been here in awhile. In contrast, Nashville is a contender year after year. But the Preds haven’t exactly played their best hockey this year. No one should be surprised if Dallas pushes passed the newbie nerves and take this series. Also, Seguin is not new to the playoffs having won a cup years ago. I have Nashville in 7.
Monte Carlo Simulation:
Nashville Predators: 56% Probability to Advance
Dallas Stars: 44% Probability to Advance
St. Louis Blues vs. Winnipeg Jets
Offense
The Jets have an edge offensively. 3 players with 30+ goals including Laine, who SHOULD have a hell of a lot more. Lots of options to put the puck in the net. St. Louis has Tarasenko with 33 goals and O’Reilly holding strong at 28. With that being said, the Blues are playing really well as a team sharing the puck getting more goals from their deeper lineups than their counterparts.
Defense
The Jets also have an edge in this category. Both teams have a very solid D grouping with 1 player that likes to jump in on the rush, Byfuglien for the Jets and Dunn for the Blues. I will say that the Jets may have an edge here statically, but the stats would favor the blues quite a bit if we were only looking at the second half of the season, which is the more important here.
Goalies
Conor Hellebuyck = 2.9 GAA, .913 SV%, and 2 SO’s (Winnipeg)
Vs.
Jordan Binnington = 1.89 GAA, .927 SV%, and 5 SO’s (St. Louis)
Binnington is on fire and has played half as many games as Hellebuyck. This will help him throughout the playoffs keeping him from wearing down. Hellebuyck is no slouch though. The goalies here will be pretty even but the edge will surely be given to the Blues here.
Intangibles
St. Louis is on an absolute tear the second half of the season. They ended the season 8-1-1. They were sitting at the bottom of the NHL barrel and are now rolling on up to the finals. They are only seeded 3rd BUT they were likely going to hit 1 or 2 if they had 2 or 3 more games to do so.
Winnipeg is doing well overall but ended the season with a rough L10 of 4-5-1. They are for sure a fully capable team. The only thing holding them back is the insane goal scoring of Laine. IF he can find a groove and start putting in a goal a night, this will go the way of the Jets. If he can’t get it going, it may be an early start to the golf season for them.
Monte Carlo Simulation:
St. Louis Blues: 72% Probability to Advance
Winnipeg Jets: 28% Probability to Advance
Washington Capitals vs. Carolina Hurricanes
Offense
The offensive fire power the Caps have is impressive. They have an incredible PP unit converting the easier goal scoring opportunities. Canes better be on their best behavior. The Caps have the league leader in goals and have depth with 7 players having 20 or more goals, 3 of which are all centers. They will be hard to stop offensively. I hope Mrazek is up for a workout (his GAA says he is). The offensive depth for the Canes won’t be enough to out score Ovi and the crew.
Defense
The greatest defensive strength for the Canes is the fact that their penalty kill is phenomenal. As previously stated, the Caps love scoring on their power plays, which will make for an exciting matchup for us to watch. Stylistically, both teams have solid defensemen who seldom take risks. I’d expect a pretty evenly matched series from both units here.
Goalies
Braedon Holtby = 2.82 GAA, .911 SV%, and 3 SO’s (Washington)
Vs.
Petr Mrazek = 2.39 GAA, .914 SV%, and 4 SO’s (Carolina)
The Caps are a team that scores way more than they get scored on, as you can see from the visual above with their almost perfect goal differential rating. So if the Canes find a way to beat Holtby time and time again, this series shouldn’t be a blowout. Other than that, goalies here should be fairly even.
Intangibles
The Caps are the returning champs and the Canes are super excited to be in the playoffs so I would have to give an edge to the Caps here overall. They just went through this with the majority of their current squad. They won’t let a new team with hype push them around. (reminds me of the Knights last year?)
Monte Carlo Simulation:
Carolina Hurricanes: 52% Probability to Advance
Washington Capitals: 48% Probability to Advance
New York Islanders vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Offense
Where to begin with these teams… Both teams are solid at scoring and have depth. Penguins have a better top line that is capable of doing some serious damage, which ultimately tips the scale in their favor for this category. Top 3 goes to the Penguins and the back 9 will be fun to watch battle it out for scrappy goals.
Defense
I’m not a big fan of the crew the Penguins have assembled. Letang is their “big time” D man and honestly he is kind of a joke. I don’t see the hype around him but if the Penguins would pair him with a total “stay-at-home” D man it would help. However, they don’t have that leaving them open for opponents to take advantage on the back end. They are similar to the Caps where their offensive power has won them games by simply outscoring the other team. Defense is more or less irrelevant.
The Islanders have a very reserved defensive core. Between the goaltending and the Defenders, they will be able to slow the Penguins down enough to win them this series.
Goalies
Matt Murray = 2.69 GAA, .919 SV%, and 3 SO’s (Pittsburgh)
Vs.
Robin Lehner = 2.13 GAA, .930 SV%, and 4 SO’s (New York)
Goaltenders are so important and the islanders have 2 great goalies. I feel like Lehner will earn the start with slightly better save percentages and a little advantage with goals against. Murray has been playing well this season as a starter but his stats just can’t match up to Lehner. The Islanders have the advantage here.
Intangibles
The Penguins have an edge here because they are built as a “playoff” team. Their big guys up front know exactly what they need to do to win and are no longer phased by the playoff atmosphere. I’d give the penguins an edge here but I think the islanders will be able to hold them off in a long series.
Monte Carlo Simulation:
New York Islanders: 60% Probability to Advance
Pittsburgh Penguins: 40% Probability to Advance
