WestGate SuperContest: Week 5
Last week didn’t go so well but that was true for most NFL prognosticators. While our picks went 2-3, the Super Contest consensus was 0-5. Overall we are 10-10. Not great… but not a deep hole either. Now is the time to go for the jugular so 5-0 here we go!
Our picks this week represent a nice blend of favorites and dogs. It feels really nice to start seeing normal NFL spreads instead of the nonsense 3 TD spreads we’ve seen this year. We are picking on small spreads but of course selecting teams that match up really well against their opponents. Here are our Week 5 selections.
Our Picks:
Pick 1: Arizona Cardinals +3
Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals
I know, I know… This is an absolute trash game and logic tells us to stay away. Combined records of these teams is 0-7-1. Ouch! While Arizona has struggled, one can argue that Cincinnati has struggled more. Hence, why not take the dog here in a battle of two dogs!
There is no one on the Bengals offense that gets me excited but the Cardinals have dynamic playmakers in Kyler Murray, David Johnson, and Larry Fitzgerald. If you take a look at the DVOA numbers on Football Outsiders for the Bengals defense, you will see why we like Arizona. The Bengals are 2nd to last in Offensive DVOA and 3rd to last in Defensive DVOA.
True, Arizona does not rank well in those categories either (27th and 25th respectively) but Cincinnati is really bad. Only Miami is worse. If you want to get more granular with DVOA, the Bengals are 2nd worst to #1 WRs and 3rd worst to pass catching RBs. This might be Kyler Murray’s first victory as he should find Fitzgerald and Johnson open often. Our model actually likes Arizona to win outright so possibly the moneyline…
A.I. Sports’ Prediction Model:
Arizona Cardinals: 62% Probability to Cover
Pick 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints
Another crazy bet but sometimes you need to get crazy to get to the top of the heap in the Super Contest. The Bucs actually epitomize the word “crazy” when it comes to the NFL. Their last 2 games have been barn burners. They blew a huge lead to the NY Giants two weeks ago but nonetheless looked very dominant in the 1st half. Then a week later they traveled cross country to put up 55 points against the defending NFC Champions. In fact, the Bucs were responsible for ruining most survivor pool entries.
Even though the Bucs are 2-2 and rank high in offensive and defensive DVOA (much higher than New Orleans), the public still does not believe in Tampa Bay and why should they? From 1997 – 2007, the Bucs made the postseason 7 times. Since then, the Bucs have experienced an 11 year playoff drought. We are not used to thinking that Tampa Bay is a good team but the reality is that they are a good team. They have all the pieces to compete.
The Saints have done well without Drew Brees but this is a divisional matchup. Plus we are getting 3.5 points. Even if we lose by a field goal, we’ll cover. Like Arizona though, the models believes the Bucs will win so a possible moneyline bet for the dog again. This should be an entertaining game.
A.I. Sports’ Prediction Model:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 61% Probability to Cover
Pick 3: Baltimore Ravens -3
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
After a super impressive Week 1 victory at Miami, the Ravens have looked rather pedestrian. They did not cover against Arizona and lost to Kansas City (but covered). However, we can live with those results since Kyler Murray is not an easy out and Patrick Mahomes is pretty much unbeatable. The real issue is how Cleveland dominated Baltimore. That game took many of us by surprise but maybe it shouldn’t.
The Ravens defense is not that great with a defensive DVOA that ranks 29th. However, the Baltimore offense is legit. That is how the Ravens are winning games unlike what we’re used to during the Ray Lewis era. Furthermore, the Steelers have a mediocre offense. They looked good on Monday Night Football but that was against Cincinnati.
Expect Lamar Jackson to have a monster game at Heinz Field. Russell Wilson carved up the Steelers in Week 2 so expect a mobile QB like Jackson to do the same. Don’t be fooled by the fact that Pittsburgh is a game behind Baltimore in the standings. We will see serious separation between these two teams over the next few weeks and it all starts with this head-to-head matchup. Our model has Baltimore winning by 7 points. Could be more but regardless the chalk is OK to eat here.
A.I. Sports’ Prediction Model:
Baltimore Ravens: 58% Probability to Cover
Pick 4: Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Carolina Panthers
Back to another dog. Yes, the Panthers have looked solid the last two weeks and this game is in Carolina. Christian McCaffrey is an uber-talented RB and Jacksonville does not defend the run game particularly well. Still, Jacksonville is 2-2 like Carolina and has won 2 in a row after a slow start to the season also like Carolina.
There is a lot to like about the Jaguars offense. Leonard Fournette is a talented RB in his own right, especially after a 200+ rushing yard performance last week in high elevation. And how can you not like Gardner Minshew! The kid has charisma and is winning over his locker room and the state of Florida. He is the ultimate Florida Man! This game should be close so getting 3.5 points is awesome value. Just like our Tampa selection, if they lose by a field goal we still cover. Take the points and move on. Uncle Rico has our back!
A.I. Sports’ Prediction Model:
Jacksonville Jaguars: 56% Probability to Cover
Pick 5: San Francisco 49ers -3.5
Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers
Monday Night Football has been good to us so we will trust our model here. They host a talented Browns team that may have finally found its mojo after beating Baltimore 40-25 last week. Still, the 49ers are one of the top teams based on DVOA and their undefeated record. They will host Monday Night Football and finally Levi’s Stadium should be raucous. Not sure if it will rival the energy of Candlestick Park but maybe the 49ers fans will prove us wrong.
The long travel and time zone change for an evening game could mess with Cleveland. Plus if you look more closely at what personnel packages Cleveland runs on offense, it makes sense that they did well against Baltimore but will probably have trouble against San Francisco. Matchups are key and we love this matchup.
With an extra week to prep for this game, expect the 49ers to stay undefeated. They’ll be running the ball successfully in several 2 RB formations, something Cleveland does not defend well and will be looking for turnovers when the Browns are in their 2 TE sets, something San Francisco defends very well. We have the 49ers winning by over a touchdown.
A.I. Sports’ Prediction Model:
San Francisco 49ers: 60% Probability to Cover
That’s a Wrap
Three dogs and two favorites. We have a lot of ground to cover to work our way up the standings. Let’s get back in the hunt with these picks!
